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Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby simon-b » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:01 pm

It's very well publicised that the rules are different for each nation of the UK. Briefings by the Scottish and Welsh first ministers are aired U.K. wide by the BBC as well as briefings from London. The virus itself doesn't recognise national boundaries, and the dangers to MRT etc would be the same if an incident like that in Glen Coe occurred in Snowdonia or Lakeland. So it's not completely irrelevant to mention the situation outside Scotland for comparison, maybe to see how well each of the four nations' rules work compared to each other.
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby gman » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:34 pm

simon-b wrote:So it's not completely irrelevant to mention the situation outside Scotland for comparison, maybe to see how well each of the four nations' rules work compared to each other.


Have you heard of any cases in the UK linked to hillwalking/outdoor exercise? There's a comparison of cases per 100k on the UK dashboard but most research I've seen seems to link infections to gatherings in poorly ventilated indoor areas which explains the rise in winter and spike after the restrictions were eased on 25th Dec. I don't think it's possible to link the outdoor exercise policies to these rates, but just for comparison:

chrome_God7gK868Z.png

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby simon-b » Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:57 pm

gman wrote:
simon-b wrote:So it's not completely irrelevant to mention the situation outside Scotland for comparison, maybe to see how well each of the four nations' rules work compared to each other.


Have you heard of any cases in the UK linked to hillwalking/outdoor exercise? There's a comparison of cases per 100k on the UK dashboard but most research I've seen seems to link infections to gatherings in poorly ventilated indoor areas which explains the rise in winter and spike after the restrictions were eased on 25th Dec. I don't think it's possible to link the outdoor exercise policies to these rates, but just for comparison:

chrome_God7gK868Z.png

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

I don't disagree with you there gman. There seems to be a lot of controversy at the moment regarding outdoor exercise because the participants are easy to spot and therefore easy targets, when the main danger of Covid infection occurs in other settings, as you say. But an MRT incident does put more pressure on already stretched emergency and health services.
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby Sunset tripper » Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:20 am

The latest 7 day average shows my local neighbourhood has 157 cases per 100,000. My local mountains are the cairngorms.
Macdui (on the border) and Derry Cairngorm are in a local neighbourhood that has 461 cases per 100,000 (honest I looked it up :D ) I'm going to stay off the hills until the cases in the Cairngorms come down a bit. :D

More seriously I'm going to stay off the hills until the roads improve, I get some time off, and there's a bit more daylight, maybe mid February will be better (I reckon that will have kept my travel and recreation this year to an absolute minimum).............. I don't care much for the saying "the hills will always be there" because that's really not much use if you're not here. :shock: :shock: :shock:

Hopefully this vaccine works because I don't think most folk can take much more of this. :crazy: :crazy: :crazy:
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby Marty_JG » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:10 am

Sunset tripper wrote:The latest 7 day average shows my local neighbourhood has 157 cases per 100,000. My local mountains are the cairngorms. Macdui (on the border) and Derry Cairngorm are in a local neighbourhood that has 461 cases per 100,000 (honest I looked it up :D ) I'm going to stay off the hills until the cases in the Cairngorms come down a bit. :D


Very few people live there so any infection is going to show up as a large percentage or ratio, so yes it's 460 per 100k, it's also 14 positive cases in the last week.

Anyone legally exercising in the area should take care to avoid the very few people who live there.
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby gman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:54 am

Marty_JG wrote:Very few people live there so any infection is going to show up as a large percentage or ratio, so yes it's 460 per 100k, it's also 14 positive cases in the last week.


Yes, I think that was his point. :lol:
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby gman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:13 am

We've now got more info on the infection rate in 2020, we came out of lockdown at the start of July and more people than usual were on the hills (Lomond MR reported it was already their busiest year ever on 13 Sep). The Lancet article I linked to earlier showed the concern that the rate would rise in the colder months as people spent less time exercising outdoors and this appears to be the case. More restrictions were introduced in Oct which brought the rate down, then households were allowed to gather indoors on 25 Dec which caused a massive spike (now coming back down as restrictions are back in place).
pos rate.png

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby simon-b » Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:42 am

Absolutely people should be encouraged to exercise outdoors (within the rules). During a health crisis it makes sense to stay fit and healthy, and maintain a strong immune system. It's hard to get enough vitamin D from daylight in winter so every precious little helps.
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby al78 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:54 am

simon-b wrote:Absolutely people should be encouraged to exercise outdoors (within the rules). During a health crisis it makes sense to stay fit and healthy, and maintain a strong immune system. It's hard to get enough vitamin D from daylight in winter so every precious little helps.


Especially when we are persistently having a near 50% sunshine deficit like SE England.
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby gman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 11:07 am

I think the main advantage is that outdoor exercise gets people away from indoor spaces where we know the virus is more likely to spread.
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Re: Glencoe hillwalkers fined for travel violation.

Postby gman » Thu Jan 14, 2021 2:07 pm

Relative risks:

The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0, 57.9).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2?ijkey=4f0a236095f0315a2cf896cd00e3f675cb1e0a5a&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha

Households show the highest transmission rates among indoor settings compared to other settings such as social gatherings, travel, healthcare, workplace and casual close contacts.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/209673/covid-19-spread-different-social-settings-imperial/
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