walkhighlands

This forum is for general discussion about walking and scrambling... If writing a report or sharing your experiences from a route, please use the other boards.

the C word

Re: the C word

Postby Marty_JG » Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:04 pm

Gareth Harper wrote:Herd Immunity


The evidence isn't yet certain but the preliminary data is there is no or little reinfection, so there should be some resistance to it once you've had it. This means, fingers crossed because it's not yet certain, once it has ripped through humanity once the rates of transmission for second waves will be much lesser. Not zero but not Zombie War level either. Even best-case Herd Immunity will offer lesser protection to the individual than vaccination, but that said significantly more protection than the present. So the hope, not an unreasonable one but it's only that, is subsequent waves will have much less of an impact upon society and people than the first wave - and that will help whilst we wait for a vaccine to hit production (which is speculated to be around 2 years time).

Self-isolation is not about you not catching this bug, the assumption is the large majority will. Self-isolation is about not everyone catching this at once so the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. Basically the chances are you WILL get this but the government is trying to delay that day as long as possible in case your recovery happens to require an iron lung.
User avatar
Marty_JG
Backpacker
 
Posts: 815
Munros:8   Corbetts:2
Sub 2000:3   
Islands:3
Joined: Sep 12, 2016
Location: Glasgow

Re: the C word

Postby thedonalds » Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:11 pm

Rohan and others,

FYI the owner of the property that I am due to stay in has said that they are perfectly happy for people to come providing everyone's health is all ok. So if others have a upcoming booking at a rural self catering cottage then my suggestion would be consult with the local owner to get their views then do your own assessment and that might help you make your mind up. Not an easy one but it seems nothing is going to be easy from here on........
thedonalds
Walker
 
Posts: 33
Munros:22   Corbetts:7
Grahams:22   Donalds:87
Sub 2000:20   
Islands:26
Joined: Oct 13, 2017

Re: the C word

Postby Starbhy » Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:48 pm

It's still better to stay at home than going somewhere isolated with all the necessities needed. Just my two cents.
Starbhy
Munro compleatist
 
Posts: 14
Joined: Oct 12, 2017

Re: the C word

Postby Giant Stoneater » Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:14 pm

thedonalds wrote:At the end of next week I am due to spend a week in a cottage near Acharacle booked through Walk Highlands with Cottages.com and currently wondering what to do. Checking the Cottages.com site today all it says in relation to Covid-19 is "Presently there are no travel restrictions to any of our UK destinations" which means they reckon its business as usual so if I cancel then I am going to loose everything even though I am following Government advice. And there's no guidance on the Walk Highlands site either. There must be lots of others in a similar position.
The Cottages.com t&c's indicates that the contract is actually between the owner and the visitor, not Cottages.com (let's put that to one side for now.....) so my suggestion would be that if locals are concerned about visitors appearing then the onus is on the owners to cancel or reschedule the booking because they should know what the local situation is. I guess there must some owners on Walk Highlands and it would be good to hear what they think.


One of the problems is the Government has not ordered a total lock down by law so companies have the discretion of whither you get your money back,rebook or lose it,since there is no lock down by law,companies cant claim from insurance for lose of business due to virus,from what I understand.
Giant Stoneater
Scrambler
 
Posts: 564
Joined: Aug 2, 2014

Re: the C word

Postby Gareth Harper » Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:57 pm

The evidence isn't yet certain but the preliminary data is there is no or little reinfection, so there should be some resistance to it once you've had it. This means, fingers crossed because it's not yet certain, once it has ripped through humanity once the rates of transmission for second waves will be much lesser. Not zero but not Zombie War level either. Even best-case Herd Immunity will offer lesser protection to the individual than vaccination, but that said significantly more protection than the present. So the hope, not an unreasonable one but it's only that, is subsequent waves will have much less of an impact upon society and people than the first wave - and that will help whilst we wait for a vaccine to hit production (which is speculated to be around 2 years time).

Self-isolation is not about you not catching this bug, the assumption is the large majority will. Self-isolation is about not everyone catching this at once so the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. Basically the chances are you WILL get this but the government is trying to delay that day as long as possible in case your recovery happens to require an iron lung.


It's what the WHO calls a theory.


Please do share this preliminary data on immunity. First case was november - this is now march - how can there be solid data on immunity?
Gareth Harper
 
Posts: 368
Munros:168   Corbetts:49
Grahams:18   Donalds:33
Sub 2000:5   
Joined: Aug 25, 2013
Location: Ayrshire

Re: the C word

Postby Marty_JG » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:09 pm

Gareth Harper wrote:Please do share this preliminary data on immunity. First case was november - this is now march - how can there be solid data on immunity?


Preliminary is not the same as solid. There are several countries with high testing rates and they're not seeing high levels of reinfection, a woman in Japan was found to be reinfected but so far just the one that we know of.

Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: "based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation."

So the preliminary data is based on a lack of a significant number of reinfections and how existing infections typically operate.
User avatar
Marty_JG
Backpacker
 
Posts: 815
Munros:8   Corbetts:2
Sub 2000:3   
Islands:3
Joined: Sep 12, 2016
Location: Glasgow

Re: the C word

Postby Gareth Harper » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:00 pm

Prof Jon Cohen, emeritus professor of infectious diseases at Brighton and Sussex Medical School, said: "based on other viral infections, that yes, once a person has had the infection they will generally be immune and won’t get it again. There will always be the odd exception, but that is certainly a reasonable expectation."


Such as Norovirus. 6 to 24mnths immunity. It's also possible that Covid19 will evolve and mutate like other viruses.


The World Health Organisation is clear that the concept of herd immunity is a theory. Our government's plan therefore appears to be based on theory and expectation.
Gareth Harper
 
Posts: 368
Munros:168   Corbetts:49
Grahams:18   Donalds:33
Sub 2000:5   
Joined: Aug 25, 2013
Location: Ayrshire

Re: the C word

Postby Pastychomper » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:19 pm

Gareth Harper wrote:The World Health Organisation is clear that the concept of herd immunity is a theory. Our government's plan therefore appears to be based on theory and expectation.

I certainly hope it's based on theory and expectation, since it can't be based on certainty and shouldn't be based on speculation.

(I also hope the government don't abuse the emergency powers they're rumoured to be giving themselves, but that's another question entirely.)
User avatar
Pastychomper
Mountain Walker
 
Posts: 154
Munros:5   Corbetts:1
Grahams:2   
Sub 2000:8   
Islands:4
Joined: Jan 2, 2018

Re: the C word

Postby mynthdd2 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:51 pm

what a great comment - I need to eat more pasties (rather than stotties...)
User avatar
mynthdd2
Munro compleatist
 
Posts: 485
Islands:27
Joined: Feb 14, 2013
Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne

Re: the C word

Postby rohan » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:43 pm

Just seen an advert by a property management company on one of the islands (I refuse to give the location or name of the company as they do not need the free advertising). They have a substantial number of properties (in an area that is short of accomodation for locals) and are offering "isolation" breaks. Talk about profiteering. One flaw in their scheme is that they insist on people going to their "local corona testing centre" before they come.
User avatar
rohan
 
Posts: 881
Joined: Mar 12, 2012

Re: the C word

Postby RyanfaeScotland » Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:58 pm

Gareth Harper wrote:...So, we have a brand-new virus doing the rounds...


Don't want to appear to be nitpicking here but I don't think brand-new virus is really an accurate description. It's certainly has characteristics that are new but its not like some gunk from Mars that's just dropped on the planet and has never been seen before. I'm no virologist or medical person either of course so here's a little snippet related to the naming of it that gives me this impression:

WHO wrote:ICTV announced “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” as the name of the new virus on 11 February 2020. This name was chosen because the virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003. While related, the two viruses are different. - https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it


Emphasis mine. So to me, if something it related to something else (even if it has differences) it isn't brand-new and I'm sure people can use the experiences of battling one against the challenges faced battling the other.

Pastychomper wrote:I certainly hope it's based on theory and expectation, since it can't be based on certainty...


Hell, I'd go as far to say that there is nothing BUT theory and expectation, even certainty isn't certain, it's just expectation with a high probability!
User avatar
RyanfaeScotland
Mountain Walker
 
Posts: 499
Munros:8   Corbetts:1
Grahams:1   
Sub 2000:4   
Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Re: the C word

Postby Gareth Harper » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:26 pm

Hell, I'd go as far to say that there is nothing BUT theory and expectation


Perhaps the problem lies with the word theory. It can imply a high degree of certainty, or it can suggest just the opposite. The World Health Organisation was, I understand, in its use of the word ‘theory’ being critical of the UK.

One such dictionary definition of theory is,

a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural and subject to experimentation, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.
Or
contemplation or speculation

Don't want to appear to be nitpicking here but I don't think brand-new virus is really an accurate description.


It's not my description, I'm just quoting the WHO.
Gareth Harper
 
Posts: 368
Munros:168   Corbetts:49
Grahams:18   Donalds:33
Sub 2000:5   
Joined: Aug 25, 2013
Location: Ayrshire

Re: the C word

Postby RyanfaeScotland » Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:37 pm

Indeed I've used the phrase "That's one theory..." myself many a time when a particularly unlikely explanation is presented!

I'll take my vocabulary concerns up with the WHO though! :)
User avatar
RyanfaeScotland
Mountain Walker
 
Posts: 499
Munros:8   Corbetts:1
Grahams:1   
Sub 2000:4   
Joined: Feb 26, 2013

Re: the C word

Postby Marty_JG » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:43 am

The virus is not described as brand-new but novel.

Novel virus refers to a virus not seen before. It can be a virus that is isolated from its reservoir or isolated as the result of spread to an animal or human host where the virus had not been identified before. It can be an emergent virus, one that represents a new strain, but it can also be an extant virus not previously identified.


Novel viruses typically have the issues of (1) a lack of deep scientific understanding of them and (2) a lack of herd immunity.

As for the word theory we should use theory in it's clinical, scientific sense just as we use it for the theory of evolution or gravitational theory.

a theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world that can be repeatedly tested and verified in accordance with the scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results; scientific theory, often contracted to theory for brevity, describes an explanation that has been tested and widely accepted as valid as used in the disciplines of science, it is is significantly different from the common vernacular usage of theory which can imply an explanation that represents an unsubstantiated and speculative guess


If (and that's big if) the WHO are publicly using the word theory in "street" form in direct opposition to the well-defined technical term they need to be sacked for gross professional misconduct; or at the very least paint their faces and wear long shoes to show they're currently in "clown mode".
User avatar
Marty_JG
Backpacker
 
Posts: 815
Munros:8   Corbetts:2
Sub 2000:3   
Islands:3
Joined: Sep 12, 2016
Location: Glasgow

Re: the C word

Postby china88 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:35 am

Everybody likes a graph...……

case trajectories

Image

death trajectories

Image

people are more susceptible where they have underlying health conditions

Image
china88
Munro compleatist
 
Posts: 47
Joined: Aug 30, 2017

PreviousNext



Walkhighlands community forum is advert free

We need help to keep the site online.
Can you help support Walkhighlands and the online community by setting up a monthly donation by direct debit?



Return to General discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests