Scottish tourism could reopen on July 15th

[Flat Earther]

Good post from Al78. Jobs and businesses are already disappearing in Aviemore. I realise that the scientists all have their own personal views but I have now heard it more than once from experts on the radio that the lockdown is now killing far more people than the virus. Of course anecdotal, but it seems perfectly feasible with depression, job losses and untreated illnesses.

I cant subscribe to "the hills will always be there" quote.
Of course the hills will be there in 1 month 1year or 100 years but people wont be, and some have already now had their last day on the hill due to the extended lockdown. This number will steadily increase and highly unnecessary in a low risk sport as the lockdown is easing fast.

The hills will always be there - but if there is nowhere to stay, to eat, no transport to get there and no pint at the end of the day then people will hike elsewhere.

[Marty_JG]

Goodbye Scottish tourism then. That's £6bn to the Scottish economy and over 200,000 jobs thrown away, good luck with compensating for that.

Some businesses will be able to adapt so it won't be 100% annihilation, but yes the impacts are going to be dramatic on several sectors and if the second spike arrives (as I suspect it will once hotels & hostels reopen) then some sectors are going to have to rethink their entire business model.

Think about it this way, do you like the idea of spending a night in a nice walkers hotel? Same question with more detail: do you like the idea of spending a night in a nice walkers hotel if the people who previously used your room were asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers? Again, and, further: do you like the idea of spending a night in a nice walkers hotel if the people who previously used your room were asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers, who infect you but asymptomatically and without much health impact on you, but you go on to infect three locals who then proceed to die?

In other years in other "forum debates" that third phrasing of the question would be an in-extremis argumentum ad absurdum, but currently it's the bog-standard scientific baseline. I wish it were otherwise.

[Raynor]

Good post from Al78. Jobs and businesses are already disappearing in Aviemore. I realise that the scientists all have their own personal views but I have now heard it more than once from experts on the radio that the lockdown is now killing far more people than the virus. Of course anecdotal, but it seems perfectly feasible with depression, job losses and untreated illnesses.

The suicide rates are going to be horrific. I also think the shielding group will drop like flies after months of being locked indoors without sunshine due to Vitamin D deficiency. I really do think we've made a huge mistake with the restrictions on outdoor access.

Perhaps people might want to try and be a bit more kind and understanding towards others as well instead of this culture of shaming people for being selfish or looking for loopholes to justify hill walking. I don't know about everyone else but I'd much prefer someone that was struggling ignored the 5 mile "advice" and drove 100 miles past the erskine bridge to sort their head out up a munro than to stop at the erskine bridge and throw themselves off. There are a lot worse things out there than COVID and being in nature is medicine, it's not just "recreation".

[Avocetboy]

Think about it this way, do you like the idea of spending a night in a nice walkers hotel? Same question with more detail: do you like the idea of spending a night in a nice walkers hotel if the people who previously used your room were asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers? Again, and, further: do you like the idea of spending a night in a nice walkers hotel if the people who previously used your room were asymptomatic Covid-19 carriers, who infect you but asymptomatically and without much health impact on you, but you go on to infect three locals who then proceed to die?

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But, surely, if that Hotel has employed the required standards of hygiene and cleaning that are required, i.e. all touch points and surfaces wiped down, all linen and laundry changed, then that Room will be "clean" when you stay in it? and therefore, your chances of catching it and transmitting it are minimal? Staying in a hotel are no different to going back to work in offices and factories. You just need to implement the appropriate control measures to mitigate the risk. Plus, if you then, yourself, abide by social distancing measures and employ good standards of hygiene, your chances of transmitting are further minimized?

[Fractral]

I realise that the scientists all have their own personal views but I have now heard it more than once from experts on the radio that the lockdown is now killing far more people than the virus. Of course anecdotal, but it seems perfectly feasible with depression, job losses and untreated illnesses.

While you're not wrong, we should recognize that had we not locked down far more people would have died.

Some level of lockdown is necessary to minimize deaths and other suffering. Too hard a lockdown and the lockdown kills people; too loose and the virus does instead. The trick is finding what level is appropriate. I agree that the current lockdown is too harsh though, but relaxing it immediately in full is not the answer either.

Given that the majority of infections occur indoors I think the measures to reduce the number of people getting in close contact in businesses, shops, public transport etc are sensible and should stay where possible. If it's a good summer there's a reasonable chance the virus will be beaten back to the point that when everyone goes back inside for winter things don't get too bad.

[Silver Bear]

Watch out for a handbrake turn on the lifting of restrictions after today's update from Sturgeon

Just a hunch, but with jobless total up , economy being crippled and the virus almost suppressed , there is no reason not to relax things quicker

Just a hunch as I say , just a hunch

[goth_angel]

We need to get out of this tunnel vision that the only thing that matters is the virus and to hell with anything and anyone else. We are not going to get the risk down to zero, we are sooner or later going to have to accept that people are going to die from it every year, we are going to have to increase the capacity of the NHS to deal with it, paid for with increased taxation, and we are going to have to get back to a normal way of living, otherwise we are on a one way path to economic and social wellbeing suicide. The education of our children is already being compromised, and young adults are going to have their future stuffed for decades as a result of this now over-reaction. The lockdown was appropriate through April and May, but we now need to recognise the destructive side effects and forge a path out of it. Hiding from or denying issues doesn't magically make them go away.

I totally agree with this. A vaccine might be years ago or worst case never. We have got to get back to some sort of normal not just for the economy but for people's well being and mental health. If the economy crashes and however many million people lose their jobs, then the deaths arising from that (e.g. from suicide, poverty, etc) as well as undiagnosed cancers, people dying of heart attack or stroke etc due to being too afraid of the virus to go to hospital could be far worse than the deaths from the virus.

I understand why the lockdown was imposed but we need to get on with things. Yes there will inevitably be more deaths from the virus but given nobody has any immunity we may just have to accept that. You can't stop deaths without either immunity, an effective vaccine or an effective treatment and putting everyone under house arrest until one of the latter two happens just isn't doable.

[Marty_JG]

But, surely, if that Hotel has employed the required standards of hygiene and cleaning that are required, i.e. all touch points and surfaces wiped down, all linen and laundry changed, then that Room will be "clean" when you stay in it? and therefore, your chances of catching it and transmitting it are minimal? Staying in a hotel are no different to going back to work in offices and factories.

The sheer virulence of C19 makes me think this will not be possible in hotels, hostels, or as you say, offices. Every surface. Not just in the room but every surface in the eating area. Every railing? Every door knob after every use?

I think cottage-unit rent-outs could be okay if they have a 3-day break between visitors (the maximum it is thought the virus can be infectious on a surface). So people stay for a week or two (because you can't afford to do this for overnighter guests) then you leave the unit empty for two days and deep clean the third.

But yeah we might well see all hell break loose when offices reopen. Depends if our track & trace will be up to it.

[Avocetboy]

But, surely, if that Hotel has employed the required standards of hygiene and cleaning that are required, i.e. all touch points and surfaces wiped down, all linen and laundry changed, then that Room will be "clean" when you stay in it? and therefore, your chances of catching it and transmitting it are minimal? Staying in a hotel are no different to going back to work in offices and factories.

The sheer virulence of C19 makes me think this will not be possible in hotels, hostels, or as you say, offices. Every surface. Not just in the room but every surface in the eating area. Every railing? Every door knob after every use?

I think cottage-unit rent-outs could be okay if they have a 3-day break between visitors (the maximum it is thought the virus can be infectious on a surface). So people stay for a week or two (because you can't afford to do this for overnighter guests) then you leave the unit empty for two days and deep clean the third.

But yeah we might well see all hell break loose when offices reopen. Depends if our track & trace will be up to it.

I should have explained more Marty, I live down South and work in Construction. Our Offices and factories have been open for weeks now. We have strict cleaning and social distancing regimes in place. Hand sanitizers located throughout, touch points cleaned 3 times a day, deep cleans of facilities 3 time per week. Without tempting fate, to date, no transmittal of virus at any of our locations. I cannot see why Hotels and self catering are any different apart from deep cleans after residents have left / cottages are vacated may take slightly longer - but not 3 days. If that were the case then we would have to wait 3 days every time we use our offices.

There still is a risk, but its a case of minimizing it

With regards track and trace - as far as I can see - it will not work. To expect people to self isolate for 14 days because they "may" have been in contact with someone at less than 2 metres is unworkable. Even more so, if Social Distancing is reduced to 1M as the Government seem intent on doing. Its just government spin, to create the illusion that they are doing more than they are.

[Bonzo]

One of my relatives owns a hotel and has spent weeks cleaning and preparing for a possible July 4th opening.

It's cost a fortune and she's still to receive the final opening criteria from the government but the most annoying part of all of this is that she feels that all the extra effort and cost will all be wasted because a high percentage of the general public are idiots.

Her view is that if you want to use a hotel, pub or restaurant any time soon be prepared to see the end of social distancing.

One of her biggest concerns is having to manage and referee the groups that adhere to social distancing and those that couldn't give a toss.

[Giant Stoneater]

From the BBC letters page "It's a bit like the film Jaws, we need tourism. But the shark is still in the water."

[Marty_JG]

From the BBC letters page "It's a bit like the film Jaws, we need tourism. But the shark is still in the water."

That's an amazing find. Thanks for sharing.