Physics would suggest the difference is less important than the quality of the insulation in the mat (= doesn't allow much air circulation inside the mat, the absolute Achilles heel of old fashioned air beds).
My (limited) understanding is that the R value of the mattress is a reasonable standard to judge insulation effectiveness by (forget the thickness). I have an Exped Synmat UL 9 M, which has an R value of 8. This has seen me comfortable in snow and a few degrees below zero in combination with a 3 season sleeping bag (lots of ice on the tent in the morning
). The only issue is that it ain't so light (UL???) - 595 gm.
It seems there are now mats on the market that are at least as effective as this one.